🔗 Share this article

Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year went for Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over half. He has just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.