Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
