Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The typical figure of everyday killings per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that murder numbers could fail to indicate enhanced national safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This information was delivered by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen in these months is very notable,” the President stated, noting that last month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, security experts warned that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to accurately identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was also concerning because it may hide days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.