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"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if our discussion went well, he might invite us into Downing Street for another conversation next year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever time off for prime ministers. In the hour before the interview began, the PM had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to work out what on earth had occurred in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our lengthy talk, which was far more extended than normal, had finished, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

With the year commences, Starmer appears to have had something of a revitalisation. Maybe even just a little downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have resulted in a more positive mood than at the saggy end of 2025, a dreadful year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his allies deluding themselves if they believe his political fate are set to turn around?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the PM is that a significant number of his fellow MPs believe he's ineffective at his job. Some of them would rather gamble and oust him this year.

But Sir Keir was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "judged at the next election", insisting no one would strip his term from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 could be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I aim to be at the forefront," he affirmed.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to protest, maybe excessively, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – in part. But even though he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no scenario under which he would step down, should one of his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He attempted to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the public was naturally anxious for things to get better. He tried to assure me, and the public, that the coming months would be a change.

The economy would improve despite rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government enacted during their initial rocky year began to show results.

• He pledged to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not put a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the proviso that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a settlement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western partners were now talking about how to coordinate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His big argument is that soon the country will "turn the corner".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a some time – less tense, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing demands from various quarters for a bolder strategy, with increased political clarity, more urgency, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

Given that he is in considerable political trouble, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No government, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his team have erred, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when past remarks he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting obvious political perils as the year unfolds. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the notion he would be at ease with these events seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "longtime champion of international law" but we "simply haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Some called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also always been bubbling pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer pledge to integrate further with the European trading bloc – the huge economic European market – will likely provoke protests that he is breaking his promise never to try to reverse the results that followed Brexit.

A move to integrate into more of the single market will please some on his side of the party, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to